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Development Trend of China Steel Market Forecast and Analysis 2014

Datetime: 2014-02-13     View: 1688

Steady growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform, 2014 China's macro-control of the three focus points. The three aspects of macro-control, complement each other, from different sides to promote China's economic growth stabilizes. Expected annual GDP growth rate reached or nearly 8%, higher than the 2013 level of growth. Under its influence, the national steel demand situation is better than last year, to stimulate additional resources, especially the import of more growth, the annual price level is relatively stable, the situation will not fall sharply.


First, the good macroeconomic boost to many needs


Chinese steel demand, closely related to the overall economic situation, in 2014 China's major economic indicators of stabilization and recovery, improve internal and external economic environment, the demand for steel and raw materials to boost self-evident.


The first is to boost investment and construction requirements. Analysis of new developments a year, investment is still to stabilize China's economic growth, an important means to avoid than-expected fall in; while adjusting the economic structure, strengthen weak sectors of the national economy, but also require new investments to achieve; and increase the pace of reform, some areas removal of administrative examination and approval, the introduction of private capital, rely on market allocation of resources, will provide new impetus to investment. Chinese construction investment in 2014 will be launched in a number of energy saving and environmental protection, urban and rural infrastructure, traffic, public services, such as residential. Construction of the above-mentioned aspects of sheer size, the necessary funds could reach hundreds of thousands of yuan, of which only the urban underground pipe network transformation, hence the national investment will be more than 350 billion yuan; environmental protection, the country will invest 2 trillion yuan water pollution governance, and to carry out large-scale investment in air pollution control action, only Beijing would invest 1 trillion yuan; National Urban rail transit construction investment will also have as many as 4 trillion. Many projects have been completed for approval in 2014, construction of the building to enter. In addition, in 2013 the national real estate sales price go up, "solar disk" and "ground" are frequent, developer funding is better, and the country to strengthen the construction of housing projects, but also will make the 2014 real estate investment accelerated. 2014 is expected to total fixed assets investment more than 55 trillion yuan, the nominal investment growth of 21%. Such a huge investment in construction, is bound to stimulate a huge amount of demand for steel.


Second is to boost demand for exports. 2013, developed countries have amended preliminary tightening, the primary goal of the government austerity turn stimulate growth and increase employment. Despite the Fed's exit QE expectations, but there is great uncertainty, even withdraw its small, quit a long time, and other countries will not follow. Under its influence, the major developed economies will be stabilization and recovery, in which the euro zone will be away from recession, the US economy continues to recover momentum, the Japanese economy will also get rid of deflation; to improve the economic situation in developed countries, it is bound to add impetus to the emerging countries, and therefore 2013 the overall state of the world economy is better than last year, natural demand for Chinese exports in 2014 to improve the environment. China's exports in the second half of 2013 significantly accelerated, has shown the momentum. The speed of China's economy, in turn boost the global economy, resulting in greater demand for the overseas market for Chinese goods, so bullish cycle. China's direct exports in 2013 will be less than 60 million tons of steel, to maintain a large-scale level. Furthermore, since the indirect exports of automotive steel, shipbuilding, home appliances and other electrical products export driven, the Chinese New Year all converted crude steel exports will be close to or more than 100 million tons,


Once again, boosting manufacturing production needs. National fixed-asset investment and exports both to the good, derive a large number of urban and rural residents, which makes 2014 China was a great boost to the manufacturing sector, including building materials, construction machinery, logistics equipment, household appliances and other manufacturing needs, increase its demand for raw materials. Such as the expansion of energy-saving and environmental protection investment is bound to promote efficient boilers, expand efficient motor applications, the development of regenerative combustion technology and equipment. In addition, the development of resource recycling technology and equipment, improve resource productivity and so on. All of these will significantly promote the rise of green energy equipment manufacturing industry, driving more demand for steel and other metals demand. After the second half of 2013, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose by continued strong, which in October Chinese PMI manufacturing for 50 Coorong MA, picked up for several months, but also indicates that China's manufacturing situation in 2014 was better than last year. Manufacturing has always been an important consumption of steel, generally accounting for more than 5 percent of total demand. New year, China's manufacturing situation has improved, domestic steel demand is bound to increase.


Finally, boost business needs to replenish stocks. Because "to buy up not to buy down" market behavior, from 2012 National steel and smelting raw materials destocking behavior continued until mid-2013, many business inventories below their fair water, some steel companies when only enough inventory least one The amount of ore weeks, or even less. According to monitoring data, the end of July this year, the nation's major steel social stock market fell 7.6%; According to the China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in August 2013, 22 cities nationwide five varieties of steel inventory showed a continued downward trend, which in August steel inventory decreased by 7.76%, some of the key steel enterprises business executives also say sales and smooth, steel stocks are not a lot. Enter 9, the next 10 month, although the national steel stocks rebounded, but because people tend to be cautious on the market outlook, the stock will not increase much, still low by historical standards.


As the market is expected to change, confidence restoration and enhancement prices bottoming out in 2014, business is bound to replenish stocks during the year, increasing demand for steel and smelting raw material inventory. If prices continue to rise, the rally too, will lead to low inventory replenishment business panic, leading to further expansion of intermediate demand, supply and demand reversed a short period of time.


It also needs attention is extremely popular at home and abroad to implement the pre-loose monetary policy, released a huge amount of liquidity. These funds do not disappear, but spread to every corner of the market, waiting for the best market timing. Macroeconomic indicators bottoming steady rise, the gradual recovery in consumer demand, market prices rise into the channel, it will inevitably lead to a lot of speculation, resulting in a significant increase in demand for financial speculation.


Chinese crude steel in accordance with the total demand in 2013 (including direct exports, the same below) 800 million tons sizing, even if demand growth in 2014 fell to 5% of its total demand will reach 840 million tons or more.


Second, the demand expansion to provide more resources to supply space


2014 expansion of Chinese demand for steel resource supply provides a larger space. According to preliminary estimates, in 2014 the National Statistical crude steel output will reach 820 million tons, an increase of about 5 percent over the previous year, considering the statistics of production is not included, the actual crude steel production will more likely be close to 850 million tons, thereby pulling the iron ore, coking coal and other production release.


Higher Chinese iron ore import dependency, scrap and other raw materials, smelting, expansion of domestic demand is bound to pull a corresponding increase in imports. With synchronous start to the domestic demand and replenish stocks significantly increased demand in the new year, China's iron ore, steel scrap, coking coal and other raw materials import growth will be more pronounced. Preliminary estimates, the country's iron ore imports in 2014 rose by more than 8%.


Third, the real needs of the economy has gradually become the dominant force in the market price


In general, prices of steel and raw material prices mainly by the common needs of the real economy and monetary factors. It should be said, these two factors, the real economic demand, consumer purchasing power, is the real basis for running high steel prices, monetary factors on this basis only fueled it. With the active recovery and growth in 2014 and other domestic and international economy, especially in manufacturing and housing investment in fixed assets, the real economy tends to strong demand, will gradually increase as the steel and raw material prices the dominant driving force, the Fed QE exit and other currencies stepwise relegated to secondary status, which triggered the impact of future market liquidity will be greatly diminished. It is precisely because of this, so for some time, the international market for iron ore, oil, metals and other commodity prices does not care about the Fed's exit QE expectations and the debt ceiling crisis in the United States, did not fall sharply, continuing relatively high, which New Zealand Exchange oil prices around $ 100 / barrel price fluctuations, the price of iron ore shipping index and even shock upstream.


Demand in the real economy has gradually become steel and raw material prices, while market forces that support the easy money generated by the "price premium" also continue to exist. The first is the pre-world governments, mainly western developed country governments to "rescue" the release of huge amounts of liquidity, and did not recover, there are still all corners of the global market; second is astronomical debt service, must continue to rely on printing money . In such circumstances, even if the year 2014 Fed exit QE, expected to be phased out, not rushed, avoid the impact of the economic recovery and employment. Other developed countries, the euro area, Japan, Britain, etc., are likely to continue monetary easing.


Recently, the US bipartisan compromise to raise the debt ceiling, the US government actually means more debt accumulation, ultimately means printing more money will continue to release more liquidity to the market. So much so far failed to lead to super-currency prices rose, mainly because world demand is low, people doubt the recovery of uncertainty and even fear. Thus, with the future needs of the real economy started to restore market confidence, cheap bargain-hunting profitable, these liquidity will come back, and gradually increase the metal smelting raw materials, energy and power, transportation costs and other goods and services, financial property demand, namely hedging and speculation demand. By then, the steel price shock up by the previous single demand for power, into a common drive two requirements.


Domestic environmental pollution, greatly restrict the sustainable development of the economy and urban and rural residents, improve the living environment, prevention of pollution and therefore has become an important objective of macroeconomic regulation and control. Steel companies are expected in the new year there will be more environmental costs increase, while part pollution, excessive energy consumption and backward production capacity has been greatly suppressed, but also help to improve supply and demand.


2014 Chinese steel prices shocks rose, the overall increase of about 2%, of which the annual average price of iron ore to the coast at around $ 120 / ton, falling significantly less likely. Steel prices continue to ascend, will make steel companies stock appreciation, efficiency situation is further improved.


This year the domestic steel industry overcapacity problem has not been effectively alleviated, some strength is not strong enough steel companies, steel trading business and so still keep going, however, is unlikely to significantly improve the situation in the industry, or the industry reshuffle carried out When the context of next year, some of the companies may not hold we will be forced to withdraw. With the withdrawal of some enterprises, the pattern of the domestic steel industry may change, the overall situation will be improved.



Source: HC Heavy Machinery


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